15 Apr 2020 7 min read

COVID-19: markets are overly sanguine

By John Roe

I recently discussed on Bloomberg why we think the market is placing too much confidence in when economies can reopen and to what degree.


We think the greatest COVID-19 uncertainty facing policymakers and investors is what measures are necessary for the next year, after the initial peak and lockdown, to avoid repeated waves that overwhelm health services. In turn, that will determine the amount of economic activity that’s curtailed and the structural damage that is caused.

The impressive initial policy response from central banks and governments has supported asset prices and given investors increasing hope that we’re through the worst of the market drawdown.

We think that places too much confidence in when economies can reopen and to what degree. To understand why, see my latest Bloomberg interview – by phone, of course, to respect social distancing!



John Roe

Head of Multi-Asset Funds

With failed football dreams behind him, John applies the same level of enthusiasm to investing and how to improve outcomes by battling behavioural biases. He leads on oil research, but also gets involved in a wide range of macro topics. That love of variety also explains his craft beer fascination. Hard to shut up, he’s a regular guest on Bloomberg, a conference speaker and an LGIM Director. His analytical thinking benefits from being an Actuary with an economics degree and having previously worked as a strategist at RBS.

John Roe