Disclaimer: Views in this blog do not promote, and are not directly connected to any Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM) product or service. Views are from a range of LGIM investment professionals and do not necessarily reflect the views of LGIM. For investment professionals only.
Recession
Optical illusion
We believe the prospects for a US soft landing have improved further due to recent large upward revisions to household savings and profits in the... 
Podcast: Volatility, dis-inversion and the path of rates – Market Talk
What was behind the 'flash crash' and last week's smaller wobble? Ben Bennett, Investment Strategist APAC, explains all. 
Is a US recession more likely than you think?
Here’s an alternative approach to estimating recession probabilities: beige theorem. 
Sticking the landing
Anxiety around a US recession briefly flared up at the start of August, but our recession indicators suggest that while risks remain, the chances of... 
Chart of the month: Is the US economy about to stall?
The Sahm rule has been triggered by rising unemployment, signalling a potential recession ahead for the world’s largest economy. 
What's suddenly spooked markets?
It’s not often you wake up to see a major equity market down over 12% in a day. Yet that’s exactly what happened in Japan... 
Mind the grey swans
Rather than worrying about unpredictable possibilities, we focus our energy on events whose likelihood and impact we can better quantify. 
Pinning the tail on the donkey
The output gap is one of the most important concepts for macro investors. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to measure in real time. 
Chart of the month: Was the pandemic uniquely hard to anticipate?
'Prepare, don't predict' is a mantra you will have heard repeatedly from LGIM's macro team 
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