Economics

Is a nasty inflation surprise on the menu?
Economics

Is a nasty inflation surprise on the menu?

Sharp jumps in public rents, utility bills and the living wage could lead to a stickier-than-hope...

By James Carrick

30 Apr 2024

3 min read

The American dream
Tim Drayson
Economics

The American dream

We believe the unanticipated surge in US immigration is helping to increase the chances of an...
By Tim Drayson
20 Mar 2024
4 min read
What does the Bank of England have in common with Roman priests?
Christopher Jeffery
Economics

What does the Bank of England have in common with Roman priests?

Forecasting future inflation is exceptionally difficult, but the process can still be useful to t...
By Christopher Jeffery
13 Mar 2024
4 min read
Pinning the tail on the donkey
Tim Drayson
Economics

Pinning the tail on the donkey

The output gap is one of the most important concepts for macro investors. Unfortunately, it is ve...
By Tim Drayson
19 Feb 2024
3 min read
New year resolutions of an economist
Economics

New year resolutions of an economist

I was wrong about a US recession last year and while some of the risks are receding, the market i...

By Tim Drayson

03 Jan 2024

3 min read

How OpenAI added a splash of colour to the Beige Book
Rameet Gulsin
Economics

How OpenAI added a splash of colour to the Beige Book

Artificial intelligence (AI) offers wide-ranging potential for efficiency gains for economists,...
By Rameet Gulsin
25 Oct 2023
3 min read
Sticky wicket
James Carrick
Economics

Sticky wicket

How the UK's worse 'inflation memory' could keep services inflation sticky and put the Bank of...
By James Carrick
21 Sep 2023
3 min read
Revising up UK GDP: What are the implications?
Economics

Revising up UK GDP: What are the implications?

Recent updates to historic data imply the UK's economic rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic w...
By James CarrickChristopher Jeffery
11 Sep 2023
3 min read