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Economics

EM fiscal
Economics

EM fiscal outlook: Running out of other people’s money

It’s that time where most countries prepare their budgets for next year. So let’s take this opportunity to reflect on the outlook for emerging market...
Erik Lueth
By  Erik Lueth
18 Oct 2024
3 min read
optical illusion
Economics

Optical illusion

We believe the prospects for a US soft landing have improved further due to recent large upward revisions to household savings and profits in the...
Tim Drayson
By  Tim Drayson
17 Oct 2024
3 min read
Tariffs Trump
Economics

Gauging the impact of tariffs under Trump

One of the biggest policy differences between the presidential candidates is trade; at stake is the speed of deglobalisation.
Tim Drayson
By  Tim Drayson
07 Oct 2024
3 min read
beige theory
Economics

Is a US recession more likely than you think?

Here’s an alternative approach to estimating recession probabilities: beige theorem.
Rameet Gulsin
By  Rameet Gulsin
12 Sept 2024
2 min read
stick landing
Economics

Sticking the landing

Anxiety around a US recession briefly flared up at the start of August, but our recession indicators suggest that while risks remain, the chances of...
Tim Drayson
By  Tim Drayson
27 Aug 2024
3 min read
stall speed
Economics

Chart of the month: Is the US economy about to stall?

The Sahm rule has been triggered by rising unemployment, signalling a potential recession ahead for the world’s largest economy.
James Carrick
By  James Carrick
16 Aug 2024
2 min read
Pizza menu2
Economics

Is a nasty inflation surprise on the menu?

Sharp jumps in public rents, utility bills and the living wage could lead to a stickier-than-hoped inflation reading for April. Is the disinflationary trend under...
James Carrick
By  James Carrick
30 Apr 2024
3 min read
L China1
Economics

China’s L-shaped recovery

China’s leadership set the 2024 growth target at 'around 5%', in line with last year's target and actual outcome. It will be challenging to hit...
Erik LuethPatrick Greene
By  Erik Lueth, Patrick Greene
29 Apr 2024
3 min read
American dream
Economics

The American dream

We believe the unanticipated surge in US immigration is helping to increase the chances of an economic soft landing by filling excess vacancies and supporting...
Tim Drayson
By  Tim Drayson
20 Mar 2024
4 min read
haruspex 0
Economics

What does the Bank of England have in common with Roman priests?

Forecasting future inflation is exceptionally difficult, but the process can still be useful to the extent that it helps us think about the world more...
Christopher Jeffery
By  Christopher Jeffery
13 Mar 2024
4 min read

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