Economics

Gauging the impact of tariffs under Trump
Economics

Gauging the impact of tariffs under Trump

One of the biggest policy differences between the presidential candidates is trade; at stake is t...

By Tim Drayson

07 Oct 2024

3 min read

Sticking the landing
Tim Drayson
Economics

Sticking the landing

Anxiety around a US recession briefly flared up at the start of August, but our recession...
By Tim Drayson
27 Aug 2024
3 min read
Chart of the month: Is the US economy about to stall?
James Carrick
Economics

Chart of the month: Is the US economy about to stall?

The Sahm rule has been triggered by rising unemployment, signalling a potential recession ahead f...
By James Carrick
16 Aug 2024
2 min read
Is a nasty inflation surprise on the menu?
James Carrick
Economics

Is a nasty inflation surprise on the menu?

Sharp jumps in public rents, utility bills and the living wage could lead to a stickier-than-hope...
By James Carrick
30 Apr 2024
3 min read
The American dream
Economics

The American dream

We believe the unanticipated surge in US immigration is helping to increase the chances of an...

By Tim Drayson

20 Mar 2024

4 min read

What does the Bank of England have in common with Roman priests?
Christopher Jeffery
Economics

What does the Bank of England have in common with Roman priests?

Forecasting future inflation is exceptionally difficult, but the process can still be useful to t...
By Christopher Jeffery
13 Mar 2024
4 min read
Pinning the tail on the donkey
Tim Drayson
Economics

Pinning the tail on the donkey

The output gap is one of the most important concepts for macro investors. Unfortunately, it is ve...
By Tim Drayson
19 Feb 2024
3 min read
An economist’s guide to Red Sea risks
James Carrick
Economics

An economist’s guide to Red Sea risks

The recent attacks in the Red Sea are likely to disrupt the quantity as well as prices of importe...
By James Carrick
22 Jan 2024
4 min read