21 Nov 2022 1 min read

Chart of the month: let’s not get ahead of ourselves

By Ben Bennett

The post-US CPI rally may mark a turning point, but there's a long way to go yet.

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The recent US CPI inflation reading led to a significant rally in equities and bonds as investors became optimistic that the Federal Reserve could be nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle.

Amid the optimism, it’s worth putting this into context: the chart above shows that year-to-date real yields (the rate adjusted for inflation) have risen very significantly, with negative yields now a distant memory.  

If investors get comfortable with the idea that monetary tightening and economic slowdown will get inflation under control, then risk assets could rally. But stagflation and a protracted recession remain as downside risks.

Bottom line: it’s more hope than reality for now, but investors are looking towards 2023 with a bit more optimism.

Ben Bennett

Head of Investment Strategy, Asia

Ben joined LGIM’s London team in 2008, initially focusing on credit strategy before taking on the role of Head of Investment Strategy and Research, coordinating LGIM’s research from long-term themes to short term market drivers. He also chaired the monthly investment macro meeting for many years, a key input for portfolio risk across the active strategies. He relocated to Hong Kong in 2020, joining the LGIM Asia Board as a Director and was appointed Head of Investment Strategy, Asia, to help grow LGIM’s investment business across the APAC region. Ben started his career in 1999 as a credit strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in London, before performing the same role at both BNP Paribas and Lehman Brothers. Ben holds an MA in Mathematics from Queens' College, Cambridge University.

Ben Bennett