04 Apr 2023 1 min read

Chart of the month: Credit tightening implies weaker US GDP growth

By Ben Bennett

The link between credit conditions and GDP growth adds conviction to our view that a US recession is likely this year.

COTM_April.png

The US Federal Reserve’s latest survey of senior loan officers in the US found a majority reporting that their banks were set to tighten credit conditions. And this was before the recent bout of banking stress – chances are that credit conditions will have tightened more since then.

Given over the last thirty years the chart suggests a potential link with GDP growth, this adds to our confidence over a recession in the US this year. We don’t think equity market valuations reflect this, and we therefore see further downside risk from here.

Ben Bennett

Head of Investment Strategy, Asia

Ben joined LGIM’s London team in 2008, initially focusing on credit strategy before taking on the role of Head of Investment Strategy and Research, coordinating LGIM’s research from long-term themes to short term market drivers. He also chaired the monthly investment macro meeting for many years, a key input for portfolio risk across the active strategies. He relocated to Hong Kong in 2020, joining the LGIM Asia Board as a Director and was appointed Head of Investment Strategy, Asia, to help grow LGIM’s investment business across the APAC region. Ben started his career in 1999 as a credit strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in London, before performing the same role at both BNP Paribas and Lehman Brothers. Ben holds an MA in Mathematics from Queens' College, Cambridge University.

Ben Bennett