19 Dec 2022 1 min read

Chart of the month: the outlook for the S&P 500 isn’t very merry

By Ben Bennett

History suggests profits will come under pressure next year, leading us to underweight equities.

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With labour costs rising, even a mild recession should lead to a sharp fall in profits. And if we see a 20-25% decline in S&P 500 profits, then past relationships suggest the index could also fall by 20%.

This is the key reason we’re underweight equities going into 2023 and think the S&P 500 could dip to the low 3,000s. At that point, we suspect all the bad news will be priced in, and we’d look to increase exposure again.

Ben Bennett

Head of Investment Strategy, Asia

Ben joined LGIM’s London team in 2008, initially focusing on credit strategy before taking on the role of Head of Investment Strategy and Research, coordinating LGIM’s research from long-term themes to short term market drivers. He also chaired the monthly investment macro meeting for many years, a key input for portfolio risk across the active strategies. He relocated to Hong Kong in 2020, joining the LGIM Asia Board as a Director and was appointed Head of Investment Strategy, Asia, to help grow LGIM’s investment business across the APAC region. Ben started his career in 1999 as a credit strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson in London, before performing the same role at both BNP Paribas and Lehman Brothers. Ben holds an MA in Mathematics from Queens' College, Cambridge University.

Ben Bennett