Disclaimer: Views in this blog do not promote, and are not directly connected to any Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM) product or service. Views are from a range of LGIM investment professionals and do not necessarily reflect the views of LGIM. For investment professionals only.
Economics
EM fiscal outlook: Running out of other people’s money
It’s that time where most countries prepare their budgets for next year. So let’s take this opportunity to reflect on the outlook for emerging market... 
Optical illusion
We believe the prospects for a US soft landing have improved further due to recent large upward revisions to household savings and profits in the... 
Gauging the impact of tariffs under Trump
One of the biggest policy differences between the presidential candidates is trade; at stake is the speed of deglobalisation. 
Is a US recession more likely than you think?
Here’s an alternative approach to estimating recession probabilities: beige theorem. 
Sticking the landing
Anxiety around a US recession briefly flared up at the start of August, but our recession indicators suggest that while risks remain, the chances of... 
Chart of the month: Is the US economy about to stall?
The Sahm rule has been triggered by rising unemployment, signalling a potential recession ahead for the world’s largest economy. 
Is a nasty inflation surprise on the menu?
Sharp jumps in public rents, utility bills and the living wage could lead to a stickier-than-hoped inflation reading for April. Is the disinflationary trend under... 
China’s L-shaped recovery
China’s leadership set the 2024 growth target at 'around 5%', in line with last year's target and actual outcome. It will be challenging to hit... 
The American dream
We believe the unanticipated surge in US immigration is helping to increase the chances of an economic soft landing by filling excess vacancies and supporting... 
What does the Bank of England have in common with Roman priests?
Forecasting future inflation is exceptionally difficult, but the process can still be useful to the extent that it helps us think about the world more... 
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